“If you look at that water situation, that was really the Biden setup,” Trump’s statement after the flash flood event in Texas hill country. July 7, 2025.
NOTE: My heart goes out to those who must endure the tragedy of loss due to the floods in Texas.
Flash floods are a worldwide hazard. They can occur anywhere given specific weather patterns, regional climate characteristics, and geographic conditions - particularly heavy rainfall, drought, and complex terrain. Flash floods happen due to high-intensity precipitation over a short period (typically within six hours), triggered by storms, dams or levee failure, or the sudden release of water from ice jams or debris blockage. Rapidly moving water follows the path of least resistance - riverways, roadways, and canyons - creating torrents that sweep away everything in their path.
(NOTE: Maxar is a private satellite imagery company and sponsors the Maxar Open Data Program providing before and after imagery of major crisis events. (See The geography of … humanitarian aid, February 7, 2025, The geography of … natural disasters, July 2, 2025))
Flash flooding is associated with monsoon seasons, during which wind and rain dominate specific geographic regions in tropical and subtropical latitudes - such as the U.S. Southwest in July and August or Southeast Asia from June to September. Monsoon winds in Southeast Asia bring needed water for agriculture but also result in destructive flooding of villages, roads, and railway lines. In 2024, the South Asian monsoon season caused severe flash floods in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, displacing millions. In 2022, devastating monsoon storms in Pakistan caused over $30 billion in damages.
What are monsoons? A. Farnsworth. https://www.umbrella.bridge.bristol.ac.uk/education/what-are-monsoons/.
Different geographies create diverse types of flash floods. Texas Hill Country and the Guadalupe River region - often called “Flash Flood Alley” - are particularly vulnerable due to steep hills, shallow soils, and a complex river system. Similarly, the U.S. Southwest's desert canyonlands are prone to flash floods. Narrow slot canyons, dry riverbeds, sunbaked soil, and high runoff levels create ideal conditions for flooding. In these areas, heavy rain can accumulate in minutes and inundate places where it may not even be raining. Awareness of local weather and changing conditions is crucial when hiking in desert landscapes.
https://droughtmonitor.blogspot.com/2016/05/central-texas-is-flash-flood-alley.html.
Development in both urban and rural areas exacerbates flash flood risks. Urban flash flooding occurs when city infrastructure cannot absorb excess rainwater - especially in low-lying or coastal areas. Removing vegetation and building homes or cabins on graded land increases impervious surfaces, reducing the ground’s capacity to absorb water. In floodplains, development alters river morphology, undermining the ecosystem functions once provided by natural channel dynamics and riparian vegetation (See The geography of …wetlands, May 30, 2025). Water becomes high-energy runoff, damaging areas no longer buffered by natural flood defenses. Mitigating runoff requires intentional planning, investment, and adaptation. Coastal development further increases impervious surfaces through concrete, roads, and wetland destruction, creating urban heat islands and altering climate patterns. Effective stormwater drainage systems are essential to managing these impacts to accomodate extreme events.
Diagram of natural ground cover and impervious surface run-off comparisons. https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_p-2333-mat-report-hurricane-ida-nyc-fact-sheet-3_2023.pdf.
Climate conditions influence how and where flash floods occur. Droughts disrupt long-term soil moisture regimes, and when rain does come, it erodes dry soil, increasing sedimentation and cutting into soil layers to form gullies and erode hillslopes. Wildfires further transform soil by burning away organic matter, creating hydrophobic surfaces that repel water. Rapid temperature increases following snowstorms or warming rainfall on snowpack can also trigger floods. Climate change is accelerating the water cycle: higher global temperatures increase evaporation, leading to more precipitation - but this is unevenly distributed. As a result, the U.S. and other regions are experiencing shifting weather patterns - more intense rainfall and flooding, prolonged droughts, stronger hurricanes, and heat waves.
Causes of more severe floods from climate change. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Chapter 8: Water Cycle Changes, 2021. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-8/.
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) part of the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is responsible for weather forecasting. Its 122 forecasting stations each serve a “county warning area” covering 20–50 counties, providing weather, water, and climate forecasts and warnings.
NOAA’s National Weather Service Forecast Offices: https://www.weather.gov/srh/nwsoffices.
FEMA and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) jointly manage the Emergency Alert System and Wireless Emergency Alerts. The Emergency Alert System is a national public warning mechanism used by state and local authorities to communicate urgent messages - like weather and AMBER alerts - via television and radio. Most alerts originate with the NWS and are transmitted through NOAA’s National Weather Radio, a 24/7 network broadcasting forecasts and hazard information. The Wireless Emergency Alert System, launched in 2012, sends weather and emergency notifications to mobile devices.
Timely, accurate data is critical to weather forecasting. These data come from ground-based and airborne instruments, informed by local knowledge and technical expertise. Ensemble forecasting - combining computer analyses with numerical, statistical, and conceptual models - is widely used. Still, even the best forecasts carry uncertainty. Effective forecasting depends on solid science, experiential judgment, and clear communication with public safety officials.
In 1995, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was established following the reorganization of the National Meteorological Center. The NCEP’s mission is to “protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the country’s growing need for weather and climate information.” Improved forecasting benefited from advances in computing, satellite imagery, and infrastructure.
Screenshot of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction: https://www.weather.gov/ncep/.
Each NCEP prediction center provides critical data to decision-makers, the public, the media, and private sectors. These centers rely on strong partnerships and continuous exchange of information. For example, the Storm Prediction Center collaborates annually with NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to improve forecasting models. The NSSL focuses on tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and flash flooding, developing tools to increase lead time for early warnings.
Today, increasing amounts of data are integrated into interactive U.S. government maps used to track emergency responses across the country. These maps can display information down to the county and city level and link environmental data to Census demographic metrics. They provide essential insights into community vulnerabilities and resilience.
Screenshot of Current Wildfires, U.S. Census Bureau My Community Explorer: A mapping tool to help understand the potential impact of disasters to people, business, and the economy. July 8, 2025, click on each fire icon to see status. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/13a111e06ad242fba0fb62f25199c7dd/page/Page-1?views=EM-Layer-List.
Unfortunately, programs that support this infrastructure are being cut or discontinued. Data collection and dissemination are being halted, websites taken offline, and critical information ecosystems disrupted. Proposed budget cuts threaten to dismantle the scientific backbone of U.S. weather forecasting. NOAA’s regional climate centers, state lab networks, and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which oversees both the NSSL and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory - are all at risk.
Disasters such as the recent flash floods in Texas and New Mexico serve as urgent “teaching moments.” Local governments depend on robust forecasting data and policy tools to guide land-use decisions (e.g., restricting construction in flood zones) and to implement early warning systems. Real-time data from expanded river gauge networks is critical as climate change reshapes weather patterns. These evidence-based solutions have been federally coordinated—now, that coordination is in jeopardy. The U.S. once led the world in providing open access to cutting-edge datasets, analyses, and scientific research. NOAA’s scientific division—long a global model—is now slated for elimination. The Trump administration is intentionally dismantling America’s disaster-response infrastructure.
I do not know how much longer these datasets, websites, and facilities will remain accessible. Increasingly, government websites redirect me to a notice that the information is unavailable or archived. While Trump has visited the Texas flood site and pledged funds to the governor for emergency relief—and has temporarily delayed FEMA’s elimination—FEMA cannot function without the forecasting support infrastructure, which remains under threat.
This situation could happen in your community. Call your representatives. Write to your local newspaper. Talk to your neighbors. Attend local events and protest these dangerous actions that threaten our collective safety.
NOTES
https://www.undrr.org/understanding-disaster-risk/terminology/hips/mh0006
https://disasterphilanthropy.org/disasters/2024-south-asia-floods/
https://pro.digbi.net/mod/page/view.php?id=108
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/storms/monsoons
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/08/texas-deadly-floods-could-be-new-normal
https://www.weather.gov/about/forecast-process
https://droughtprooftx.com/flood-proofing-the-texas-hill-country/climate-geography/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/04/world/asia/pakistan-floods.html
https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/integrated-public-alert-warning-system
https://www.census.gov/topics/preparedness/related-sites/nws.html
https://www.vos.noaa.gov/MWL/dec_07/legacy.shtml
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/wof/
https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/coastal-data-information-program-20418256.php
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09072025/trump-picks-neil-jacobs-to-lead-noaa/